Nena News

GERMAN – Spot power set for EUR 3 rise next week

(Montel) German spot power prices looked set to rise around EUR 3, roughly 20%, next week despite a rise in wind and solar power generation but after the Easter holidays had weighed on recent prices.

The front-week baseload contract closed at EUR 18.25/MWh at one broker and was last seen in a EUR 17.50-18.75/MWh bid-ask spread.

By comparison, spot prices this week were on track to average EUR 15.10/MWh when factoring in current weekend prices. This would mark the lowest weekly level since at least the Christmas week in 2017, which out-turned at EUR 15.18/MWh. This week’s average has been impacted strongly by Easter Monday’s negative settlement of EUR -15.97/MWh.

Wind power generation should average 15.1 GW next week, 3.8 GW above normal, and up from about 12 GW expected for the current week, according to Montel’s Energy Quantified (EQ).

Solar power generation should average 9.1 GW next week, 2.2 GW above normal, compared with 8.5 GW expected for the current week. 

Meanwhile, German power demand looked set to average 48.9 GW next week, 4.8 GW below normal but around 1.3 GW higher week on week, according to EQ. 

Covid-19 impact
German power demand was currently around 10% lower than normal on the back of social distancing measures aimed at stopping the spread of the coronavirus, including the temporary closures of many businesses and some factories, analysts StormGeo said on Thursday. 

Residual load – the amount of demand not covered by renewable energy – could average 24.7 GW next week, or 10.8 GW below normal, while this week should see levels of 27.2 GW, data from EQ showed.

Meanwhile, temperatures in Germany should average 11.3C next week, 0.7C above normal, according to EQ data.

In neighbouring France, temperatures could average 14.6C next week, or 2.6C above normal. 

French peak power demand would hit a high of 49.2 GW on Wednesday, compared with 49 GW this week, according to TSO RTE. 

The latest EEX outlook showed combined German nuclear and lignite availability rising from 19.9 GW at present to 23.3 GW next Friday, equalling 91% of installed capacity. 

The 1.4 GW Grohnde nuclear reactor is currently offline for maintenance until 23 May, while RWE has curbed output at its Gundremmingen C (1.3 GW) reactor for repairs until Saturday. RWE will also restart its 1.1 GW lignite-fired unit Neurath G on Sunday.

Reporting by:
Nora Kamprath Buli
10:07, Friday, 17 April 2020