(Montel) Prices for Saturday and Sunday rose by 7% and 2%, respectively, on Friday morning due to a downward revision in renewables forecasts for the weekend and outages at conventional power plants.
The day-ahead baseload contract last changed hands at EUR 25.05/MWh at one broker, up by EUR 1.55 from the prior close, while the equivalent Sunday contract traded up EUR 0.26 at EUR 16.50/MWh.
Prices for the weekend are rising because expectations for renewable power production on Saturday and Sunday have been lowered, said an analyst at Thomson Reuters.
Outages are also providing support to prices and the availability of coal and lignite-fired power plants in Germany for Saturday has decreased by 600 MW since Thursday, said an Italy-based trader.
The day-ahead contract may be overvalued now, however, because French nuclear availability has increased, so “higher imports from France should tomorrow offset the bullish German renewables”, the analyst said, adding she expects prices for Saturday to settle around the same level as last Saturday when the Phelix spot price out-turned at EUR 23.63/MWh.
Solar to hit record high
Oslo-based analyst Nena expects wind and solar power production in Germany to average 12.3 GW throughout the day on Saturday and 13.5 GW on Sunday.
Solar output will be particularly high, peaking at almost 24 GW on Saturday and at 26.2 GW on Sunday, which – if realised – will be a new record, beating the all-time high from 21 April at 25.9 GW,Nena data showed.
No negative prices are expected this weekend, as wind power production will be too low and the chance of levels falling below zero has been reduced by the new flow-based market coupling – which was introduced in May – as it has led to an increase in power exports to neighbouring countries, the analyst said.
Further out, the July contract was last seen up EUR 0.42 on the day at EUR 28.80/MWh and the highest level in eight days.
“July is rising on the back of higher [forecast] temperatures”, with warmer weather set to increase the demand for power for air conditioning, the trader said.
July prices are also gaining support from slightly drier weather forecasts and the higher than expected Phelix settlements over the past few days, said Nena analyst Bengt Longva.
Meanwhile, the benchmark Cal 16 baseload contract was last seen unchanged from the prior close at EUR 31.45/MWh.