The day-ahead baseload contract last changed hands at EUR 32.25/MWh at one broker, down by EUR 2 from the prior close, while the equivalent for the weekend traded EUR 0.50 lower at EUR 26.50/MWh and the week-ahead contract was down EUR 1.25 at EUR 31/MWh.
Prices on these contracts are falling because wind power production forecasts have been revised up and “it now looks like we will see quite a lot of wind in the middle of next week”, said a Germany-based trader.
Prices for Friday are rising, however, because forecasts have confirmed both wind and solar generation will be rather low then, he added.
A UK-based analyst shared this view, saying that “it’s really all about the wind now”.
Baseload for Friday delivery last traded up EUR 1.60 on the day at EUR 37.25/MWh.
Combined solar and wind power generation is forecast to fall from an average of 16 GW throughout the day on Thursday to 7.4 GW on Friday, before rising again to 13.7 GW on Sunday and to 17 GW on Wednesday next week, according to data from Oslo-based analysis firm Nena.
Prices for next week could also be falling because spot prices this week have been lower than anticipated, with the average likely to be just above EUR 29/MWh, compared to last week’s expectations of more than EUR 32/MWh, said Nena analyst Bengt Longva.
This week’s lower than expected spot price out-turns could be attributed to a large increase in the availability of conventional power plants and to healthy wind power generation, he added.
Cal 16 edges higher
Further out on the curve, the Cal 16 was last seen up EUR 0.05 at EUR 30/MWh, having fallen to a record low of EUR 29.70/MWh on Tuesday morning.
The front-year contract has gained support from stronger emissions prices, said the UK-based analyst.
The Dec 15 EUA carbon contract last traded up EUR 0.05 at EUR 8.31/t.
Coal prices are falling, however, with the 2016 contract in the API 2 window last seen down USD 0.95 on the day at USD 50.70/t on the Ice exchange, a new record low.
Reporting by:
Iselin Rønningsbakk
iselin@montel.no
11:51, Wednesday, 26 August 2015