El-certificates

Electricity Certificates Market Analysis

Nena offers a monthly fundamental analysis on the common Norwegian-Swedish electricity certificates market (green certificates). We follow all large wind, hydro and bio power projects in Sweden and Norway, in order to provide an up to date status on capacity left in the goal, as well as understanding which projects that will take investment decision.

The report gives an update on long run marginal cost for onshore wind power projects in Norway and Sweden based on detailed valuations, with an elcert price prognosis for the next 5 years, changes in the elcert balance and surplus. All backed by a thorough discussion on up to date political developments and realization of elcert eligible capacity within the 26.4 TWh production goal in 2020.

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Current status and scenarios in the el-cert market

Nena provides the balancing unit of the market with LRMC, CAPEX, OPEX, load hours, long term power price/CFD expectations. Political development likely to influence the elcert market is followed closely and discussed in each report.

To heighten the influence from weather risk Nena accumulates the elcert balance in 15 different weather scenarios. Capacities are presented as available on technology in MW, expected average load hours, and MWh elcert production.

El-cert workshop

Nena offers workshops at client premises where pre-agreed topics related to the el-cert market is presented and discussed. For best use of a workshop Nena recommends to add the most recent “Electricity Certificates Outlook 2015-2035”. Use this opportunity to enhance your understanding of the market and to challenge Nena.

Elcert analyst team

Nena has covered the el-cert market since 2009. The monthly report issued around the 20th of every month is made by analyst Joachim Jernæs with support from chief analyst Sigbjørn Seland. Joachim Jernæs follows the market very closely, and has deep insight in all ongoing and expected projects in the market.

Sigbjørn Seland

Chief Analyst

Master of Science, Finance from NHH Bergen/University of Mannheim Germany. Former Trader at Drammen Kraft AS.
Employed since June 1998.

+47 22 31 41 06

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Get full access to StormGeo’s analysis for one week free of charge. Follow the market closely with Nena’s price forecasts and market updates throughout the day via Nena’s website and in reports issued by email. A web meeting with an analyst is included in the free trial.

(47) 22 31 41 00

Nena@StormGeo.com

StormGeo AS

Nena Analysis is a part of StormGeo AS.
Visit www.stormgeo.com for more information.

(47) 55 70 61 70

Info@StormGeo.com

ANALYSIS AND SERVICES

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Coal

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El-Certificates

All large wind, hydro and onshore wind power projects (…)

Emissions

Daily and weekly reports (…)

LONG TERM REPORTS

Nordic Power Market

Outlook 2024 - 2050

Spring 2024, 42^nd edition: Scenario-based analysis with updated price prognosis for all Nordic price areas and neighboring countries.

Available from April 11^th

Nordic Renewables

Outlook 2024 - 2050

Spring 2024, 29^th edition: Renewable cost development, potential, and expected investments in Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, and Baltics until 2050.

Available from April 19^th