NORDIC POWER OUTLOOK

Nordic Power Market

Outlook 2019 - 2045

Spring 2019, 32nd edition

Available from March 20th

Waterfall in nordic mountain

Key features Spring 2019 edition

  • Record volumes of wind power being commissioned this year. The investment boom will continue regardless of subsidy systems, but at a declining rate coming years

  • The Nordic renewable production potential is vast, with a substantial part available at a low cost. The Long Run Marginal Cost of onshore wind power has a decisive impact on future Nordic power prices

  • The Norwegian regulator NVE has adopted amendments to the regulations on control of network operations, and Norwegian and Swedish grid regulations has thus become more similar. We discuss how this can impact the cost of and investments in wind power and long-term power prices

  • Decarbonisation requires electrification. We discuss electricity consumption development under the premise of electrification

  • Huge profits await those who commercializes competitive energy storage and the cost of energy storage is expected to decline sharply over the next few years. Beyond 2030 a large scale deployment of energy storage (our main focus is battery energy storage) will allow electricity prices all over Europe to converge against the long-run marginal cost of wind and solar power

  • Are EUA prices high enough to accelerate decarbonisation through the transition to power systems based on renewable production?

  • Brexit and German coal power exit; possible impacts on Nordic power prices

  • High scenario: Higher natural gas and EUA prices combined with limited wind power development in Norway, stronger consumption growth and new interconnectors to Germany and the UK

  • Low scenario (Nena scenario): Lower natural gas and Continental power prices and strong increase in Nordic wind power investments, using Nena forecasts for natural gas, coal and EUA prices

Report content

The long term report offer 3 scenarios with an updated Base case and a high and low scenario.

Included are price forecasts for the Nordic System price and all Nordic area prices up until 2045, as well as price projections for Germany, France, UK, The Netherlands, Poland, Estonia, Russia, Latvia and Lithuania on annual resolution. The Nordic Power Outlook Fall 2018 further includes a detailed annual supply and demand balance until 2045.

The analysis is available as pdf and paper versions, including a spreadsheet with all relevant calculations from the analysis.


Chief analyst Sigbjørn Seland holds presentation

Nordic power workshop

Nena offers a workshop at client premises or in the Nena office in Oslo where pre-agreed topics related to the Nordic power market are presented and discussed. For best use of a workshop Nena recommends to add the most recent “Electricity Certificates Outlook 2019-2045”. Use this opportunity to enhance your understanding of the market and to challenge Nena.


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ELECTRICITY CERTIFICATES OUTLOOK

Why not add a long term analysis on El-cert?

Nena launches updated long term report on Electricity Certificates until 2045 on April 3rd. We highly recommend to include this report as the elcert and power markets are strongly interlinked.