Key features Spring 2020 edition

• The NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard) effect has gained a foothold in Norway and all processing of new license applications has been put on hold. Does this mean an end to new investments in onshore wind power in Norway?

• The potential for Nordic renewable production is vast, with a substantial part available at a low cost. Despite the NIMBY effect, Long Run Marginal Cost (LRMC) of onshore wind power has a decisive impact on future Nordic power prices.

• Beyond 2030 a large scale deployment of energy storage will allow electricity prices all over Europe to converge against LRMC of wind and solar power. We discuss CAPEX development for power-to-gas technology and expectations to LRMC for medium-term energy storage.

• On the Continent, the emission goals require vast investments in unpredictable renewable sources mixed with unprecedented storage technologies. We investigate the future price formation with hourly price distribution focus, actual price levels, and the most relevant renewable/storage scenarios as we see it. The main focus on Germany, but also the UK, Netherlands, Belgium and France.

• We present scenarios for high and low SRMC of thermal power, based on EIA’s low and high resource scenarios, and alternative development in LRMC of renewable power and energy storage.

• High Scenario: Higher SRMC’s of thermal power and high LRMC of renewables and energy storage.

• Low Scenario: Lower natural gas prices and strong technology development in medium-term energy storage and wind/solar power.

Report content

The long term report offers 4 scenarios with an updated Base case scenario, a climate change scenario and a high and low scenario.

Included are price forecasts for the Nordic and German System price and all Nordic area prices up until 2045, as well as price projections for Germany, France, UK, the Netherlands, Poland, Estonia, Russia, Latvia and Lithuania on annual resolution.

The analysis is available as pdf and paper versions, including a spreadsheet with all relevant calculations from the analysis. Buyer presentation is available on request.