Nordic Power Market

Outlook 2019 - 2045

Fall 2018, 31st edition

Available from October 24th

Fjord and mountain in the fall

Key features Fall 2018 edition

  • Nordic onshore wind power investments are booming and several investments are made without any kind of subsidies

  • The investment boom will lead to a bigger Nordic production surplus than ever before

  • The Nordic renewable production potential is vast, with a substantial part available at a relatively low cost. The Long Run Marginal Cost of onshore wind power has a decisive impact on future Nordic power prices

  • Electrification of the transportation sector and commissioning of large-scale data storages is expected to be the key drivers to higher consumption. We discuss their impact going forward

  • Huge profits await those who commercializes competitive energy storage and the cost of energy storage is expected to decline sharply over the next few years. Beyond 2030 a large scale deployment of energy storage (our main focus is battery energy storage) will allow electricity prices all over Europe to converge against the long-run marginal cost of wind and solar power

  • With all the uncertainty regarding the EU Emission Trading System (ETS) market framework gone, we discuss the EUA price potential in two alternative scenarios

  • Global gas- and coal market analyses are updated along with our long-term EUA price forecast and implemented in our special Nena scenario

Report content

The long term report offers scenario analyses with an updated “Base case scenario” as well as the “Nena scenario” (using Nena forecasts for natural gas, coal and EUA prices).

Included are price forecasts for the Nordic System price and all Nordic area prices up until 2045, as well as price projections for Germany, France, UK, The Netherlands, Poland, Estonia, Russia, Latvia and Lithuania on annual resolution. The Nordic Power Outlook Fall 2018 further includes a detailed annual supply and demand balance until 2045.

The analysis is available as pdf and paper versions, including a spreadsheet with all relevant calculations from the analysis.

The Nordic Power Outlook 2019-2045 will be presented for all buyers at our upcoming client seminar Nena Energy Session in Oslo November 7.

Joachim Jernæs holds presentation

Nordic power workshop

Nena offers a workshop at client premises or in the Nena office in Oslo where pre-agreed topics related to the Nordic power market are presented and discussed. For best use of a workshop Nena recommends to add the most recent “Electricity Certificates Outlook 2019-2045”. Use this opportunity to enhance your understanding of the market and to challenge Nena.

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Why not add a long term analysis on El-cert?

Nena launches updated long term report on Electricity Certificates until 2045 on November 5th. We highly recommend to include this report as the elcert and power markets are strongly interlinked.