Key discussions for the spring 2023 edition

• Cost and technology development
  We assess the technology development and estimate future costs of wind- and solar power, nuclear power, energy storage, and hydrogen. Altogether we present the Long Run Marginal Costs (LRMC) development for 30+ technologies in 4 different scenarios from 2023 to 2050, including LRMC indices for other parts of Europe with different natural prerequisites.

• Potential and investments
  The report discusses the potential and expected investments in the Nordic region up until 2050 for hydropower, wind power, solar PV, Bio CHP, nuclear power, energy storage technologies, and hydrogen.

  There is little doubt that wind and solar power investments will be profitable. Much also points to nuclear power facing a new growth phase, even in the Nordic region. We analyze whether the profitability will be satisfactory.

• A climate-neutral Europe by 2050
  Emission reduction targets lay the groundwork for investment in the European energy system. The report includes a review of the EU’s climate, energy policies, and regulations, including the proposed EU taxonomy.

• EU Carbon market
  Though we regard governmental facilitation as a necessary addition on the road to carbon neutrality, the EU ETS system will play a key role. The report discusses the EUA market and presents a EUA price that we believe can be compatible with the long-term goal of net zero.

• Nordic renewable energy policy
  Review of the current policies and probable new political initiatives towards 2050.

• Renewables project lists
  Lists of all large projects under construction or with final investment decisions as well as the expected growth in onshore and offshore wind, solar power, large hydropower, and bio-CHP in the Nordics.

• Hydrogen project lists
  An overview of hydrogen projects under development in the Nordic region is provided.

• The Norwegian-Swedish Electricity Certificate market
  A surplus of electricity certificates has been secured and the price has fallen to the marginal cost of having new certificates issued, exactly as we expected. We present the expected electricity certificate price development with complete monthly and annual el certificate balance up to 2045.

Available for pre-purchase now

Key insights

What does the outlook offer?
Renewable cost development, potential, and expected investments in Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark, and Baltics until 2050. The analysis is available in pdf and paper versions, including a spreadsheet with all relevant calculations from the analysis.

Does it discuss energy storage technologies?
The report discusses relevant energy storage technologies to enable the extensive development of renewable energy.

Will it also include framework conditions in the Nordic region and emissions scenario?
The report includes various framework conditions in the Nordic region – addressing the long-term targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the EU. Analysis of the EU ETS with a possible emissions scenario all the way to 2050 and a detailed analysis of the Electricity Certificates market.

Report content

Spring 2023, 27th edition (2023 – 2050). Renewable cost development, potential, and expected investments in Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, and Baltics until 2050.

The Nordic Renewables Outlook contains 80+ pages of:

• Detailed SRMC and LRMC calculation for all technologies likely to play a significant part in the future Nordic electricity system, including sensitivity analysis

• Wind and solar power capture shares in the Nordic price areas until 2050

• Annual and monthly elcert balance until 2035

• And much more

  Release date: March 8^th